With last week's NBA draft done and dusted, the basketball world has moved on quickly and by this, the third day of July, we're well and truly into free agency. And so, teams and players not allowed to official sign contracts until July 11th, this seemed like an appropriate time to ponder who some of the more marquee free agents are, and where they might be headed to play next season.
1. The first domino likely to fall, and unquestionably the most coveted free agent of this class, is Nets point guard, Deron Williams. Williams has spent the last year and a half in New Jersey, after being traded by the Utah Jazz, who did well to trade him once his desires to be elsewhere to be elsewhere became apparent. The Nets are now in the unenviable position of waiting on Williams to decided between them, and his hometown Dallas Mavericks. The latest reports suggest that these are the only two teams Williams is considering and he intends to make his decision before Team USA's Olympic training camp begins on Friday. In the mean time, the Nets have been desperately trying acquire other quality players to convince Williams to resign. Indications are that they've made a verbal agreement with free-agent forward Gerald Wallace for a four-year, forty-million dollor contract, and reports have suggested that they have a trade in place to acquire Joe Johnson1 from the Atlanta Hawks for a plethora of expiring contracts, role players and a future first round draft pick. The have also reportedly signed european forward Mirza Teletovic for the mid-level exception2, and have been linked with former franchise hero Jason Kidd, who they could still sign, but only on a minimum contract.
Once Williams makes his decision, expect other players to begin to declare quickly. Williams decision - one way or another - will have a massive impact on how both the Nets and Mavs move forward, as well as re-opening all those Dwight Howard trade rumours.
2. The next group of players garnering a lot of attention right now are those veterans - most available on bargain deals - who have the potential to be key pieces for some of next season titles contenders. To the forefront of this group have been Steve Nash and Ray Allen.
Nash has long been linked to a stint with the New York Knicks, but with Mike D'Antoni long gone, Jeremy Lin's rise, and the continuing collapse of the 'Melo-Amare era, the Knicks don't seem like such a great fit for Nash anymore. They also don't have much money to offer given that they currently have most of their salary cap locked by their three core players - Carmelo, Amare, and Tyson Chandler. Nash is expected to meet with the Knicks, and New York have expressed their desire to work out a sign-and-trade of some kind with Phoenix so as to find Nash some extra salary room, but this one now seems like a longshot.
Nash's most likely destination as of today, appears to be a return to his nation of Canada to play for the Toronto Raptors. It would be somewhat of a fairytale ending for Nash, one of the most successful and celebrated Canadian athletes ever, to return to his home nation to see out the final years of his career, and given that the Raptors have the cap room to offer him more than anyone else likely will, is an added bonus. Latest reports indicate that Toronto is willing to offer Nash a three-year, thirty-six million dollar contract - much more than anyone else likely will. The Raptors have a potential decent team to put around him as well. Andrea Bargnani may never be what we expect of a former No. 1 overall pick, but he is a quality scorer who can shoot the ball. The Raptors are also likely to have last year's draft pick Jonas Valanciunas - a Lithuanian center - come over to join the team this year, and he projects to be a quality back-to-the-basket player - a perfect fit beside Bargnani. This, added to the fact that Toronto has made a three-year, twenty-million dollar offer to restricted-free agent Landry Fields. That potential Raptors team may not be a contender, but - in my opinion, - it's infinitely better than the dreadful Phoenix roster which Nash almost dragged into the playoffs last year.
As for Ray Allen, his future seems much more uncertain. There have been numerous rumours in recent weeks about the possibility of Allen joining the Miami Heat for the mini-mid-level exception of around two-point-five million dollars. Reports are now suggesting though, that Allen's current employers - the Boston Celtics - would be prepared to more than double that offer and pay him around twelve million for two years. This is somewhat surprising, given that only a few days ago, Allen was presumed to no longer be a Celtic, with rumours of his fractured relationship with team mate Rajon Rondo appeared in the media. Now, it seems like the Celtics are favourites to re-sign Allen, though it's far from a sure thing. The Grizzlies and Clippers are also rumoured to be very interested and so Allen won't lack options but he seems likely he'll choose between wearing Celtic green, or 'taking his talents to South Beach'.
Other veteran players valued on the free agent market include Marcus Camby, Kirk Hinrich, Jason Terry, Antwawn Jamison, Rashard Lewis, and Chauncey Billups. Of these players, Camby and Terry appear to be earning the most interest. Terry is supposedly in the final stages of discussions regarding a multi-year contract with the Boston Celtics, a move which would likely spell the end of Ray Allen's tenure with the legendary franchise. Camby has a number of potential suitors including the Heat and Spurs, though he maintains his priority is to re-sign with the Houston Rockets. Camby would likely command more than the leagues minimum salary, making it difficult for a team like the Heat to sign him, but if they do, he could be a perfect fit to plug one of the defending champion's few glaring weaknesses. Hinrich, at this point, looks set to return to the Chicago Bulls, the team which drafted him in 2003 with the seventh overall pick. Hinrich could potentially be a starter next season for the Bulls with Derrick Rose out, and would most likely be expected to mentor rookie point guard Marquis Teague. The Bulls are drawn to Hinrich because of his ability to play both the one and the two, defend multiple positions, and shoot and handle the ball. This seems to be pretty much a done deal, though don't rule out a late bid from the Lakers or Celtics, both of whom have expressed interest in the veteran guard. If Hinrich does sign with the Bulls, that means they likely won't pick up their team option on point guard C.J. Watson, would could then become an unrestricted free agent in a couple of weeks time.
3. The third, and final, group of players who will impact free agency this year, are the unrestricted free agents. These are guys like Jeff Green, Eric Gordon, Roy Hibbert, and Omer Asik, whose current teams can match any offer another team gives them. Some of the most coveted players in the free-agent class fit into this category, which also means by default, that they're likely staying put, as any contract offers they do receive will be matched. Eric Gordon in particular is one player who fits this mold, with New Orleans indicating they would match even a maximum offer, though still has been some interest - notably from the Suns, Pacers, and Rockets.
Hibbert has already made a verbal agreement with the Portland Trailblazers for a maximum contract over four years. This is one of the more interesting case, as while Indiana are expected to match, this is by no means a certainty and the Pacers have made it clear they'll be taking all of their options into consideration.
Jeff Green will also draw interest from a number of teams, but is regarded as highly likely to re-sign with the Boston Celtics, who see him currently as an important part of their future in the post-Big Three era.
One of the more interesting cases in all of this summer's free agency is that of the Chicago Bulls Turkish center, Omer Asik. Asik is a defensive big man, who has become a key part of the Bulls legendary 'Bench Mob' - possibly the best five-men defensive unit in the NBA. The Bulls have made it abundantly clear that they value Asik and that it is one of their main priorities to re-sign him this off-season, however, this plan has been thrown in real jeopardy by an offer Asik has received from the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have reached a verbal agreement to pay Asik twenty-five million dollars over the course a three years - what seems to be a straightforward eight-million dollar a year contract. This would be a tough enough pill for the Bulls to swallow, but it's made worse by a loophole in the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. Under the new CBA, other teams can only offer a restricted-free agent, like Asik, a contract at the mid-level for the first and second years of the deal - approximately five-million dollars a year. However, in the third year, that team may offer the player up to the maximum league contract. Thus, the deal Asik has agreed with the Rockets would pay him around five-million dollars in Year 1, very slightly more in Year 2, and almost fourteen million dollars in Year 3. This loophole makes the deal much harder for the Bulls to match given that they already have four players - Rose, Deng, Noah and Boozer - on large contracts.
It seems very unlikely that Chicago owner Jerry Reinsdorf will give management the go ahead to match this deal, which would almost certainly mean paying luxury tax in multiple seasons, however, I believe the should match it. Asik is an extremely capable defensive player, even if he is atrocious on the offensive end. His defense is a major contributing factor in why the Bulls are the best defensive team in the league, and one of the best overall teams in the league. At five million dollars a year for the first two years of that deal, Asik is a great value player. He becomes even more valuable a year down they road when the Bulls likely amnesty Carlos Boozer. Yes, Asik will be vastly overpaid in Year 3 of his deal, but, that year he will be an expiring contract and any expiring deal that large is always a major trade chip. Rose may be out next season, but it's time for the Bulls to bite the bullet and pay the dollars they need to, to build they best team they can for when he gets back. Asik can be an integral part of that.
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1. Johnson is only available on the trade market for so little because of his awful contract which pays him ninety million dollars over the next four years.
2. The mid-level exception is approximately five million dollars per year. Teletovic contract is said to be worth about fifteen million for three years.
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