D-Day for Dwight?

The Brooklyn Nets have set a deadline of Wednesday night for the completion of trade negotiations with the Orlando Magic, as regards superstar center, Dwight Howard. This is the latest twist in the ongoing Howard trade speculation. The Magic have reopened talks with the Nets today, having spent most of yesterday in discussions with the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Rockets and Lakers can offer much better trade assets than Brooklyn, but both are tentative as regards what they would include in any deal, given that Howard has already made known that he will only sign a contract extension with the Nets. Given the effect that any Howard trade would have on the NBA landscape, let's examine some of the possible and outcomes and what impact they might have for the league and franchises involved. I'll do my best to give an accurate account of all of the draft picks and role players which may be involved in such trades, but bear in mind that such details are almost impossible to predict given that some of the players involved are free agents, and there may up to four or five teams involved in some trade scenarios. The main focus of my thoughts will revolve around Howard's destination in each individual trade scenario.

1. Howard to the Nets: That this scenario still seems the most likely is totally baffling to me. I understand that Howard has some leverage here and that teams may be unwilling to give up as many assets without his commitment to re-sign, but nonetheless, it doesn't seem plausible to me that the best offer the Magic would receive is centered around Brook Lopez, and multiple (likely late-)first round picks. Lopez is an excellent offensive player (career average 17.4 ppg), but there are major questions about his defense, and especially his rebounding. How any player that tall (7'1''), and with his ability, has only averaged 7.5 rpg for his career is shocking. In 2010-11, he played 35 minutes a game and averaged only 6 boards. He played only five games last season after struggling with various injuries, which gives rise to questions about his health going forward. Don't get me wrong, Lopez is a nice player. He could be the second scorer, and third best player on a really good team, but you have to expect more back if you're trading your once-in-a-generation, franchise center.

For the Nets, teaming Dwight with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace would make them an instant title contender and set them up for a potentially spectacular first season in Brooklyn. It almost seems unfair that the Nets could end with this much talent, considering the appalling way that franchise has been run in recent years. The Nets definitely went for the home run. They've traded away three straight high lottery picks (Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and Damian Lillard), and given out/taken on, some awful contracts. Following on from 'The Decision' and the Chris Paul fiasco last summer, if the Nets could acquire Howard, and proceed to be successful with a multiple star team, it would most definitely change the landscape of professional basketball, probably for generations.

This scenario is probably the best for the league, as it would create a major rival to Miami in the Eastern Conference, in the largest media market. Given the number of star players spread across the two teams, such a rivalry would have the potential to define the NBA for the next decade. The biggest loser in this case is undoubtedly the Orlando Magic. The Magic would end up with a good, but not great center, and a plethora of late first-round draft picks while being unable to get rid of any of their bad contracts (Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson).

2. Howard to the Lakers: The Lakers have already produced one coup this summer, in luring former two-time MVP Steve Nash to La-La Land. Their trump card in these negotiations is the fact that the possess a genuine All-Star player to send Orlando, in Andrew Bynum. Bynum's maturity continues to be questionable, but his game is not. Bynum became dominant and both ends of the floor last season, making his first All-Star team in the process. A package centred around the Lakers big man would at least give Orlando a quality replacement for Howard, though they would need LA to take on one of their bad contracts, - possibly Jason Richardson - to make such a deal a reality. The Lakers seem to be open to such a move, though how the might manage that given their current cap restrictions, I don't know. I believe this would be the best fit for Howard. Alongside Gasol, he would give the Lakers a huge frontline capable of dominating opponents on both ends of the floor. His defense presence around the rim would be extremely valuable in covering for Nash, given Nash's inability to stay in front of quick point guards. Howard would become the default heir to the Laker's throne once Bryant retires, following in the footsteps of Hall of Fame centers Mikan, Wilt, Kareem and Shaq. Of course, Dwight himself seems to want no part in this saga. Following in the footsteps of such Laker legends, especially Shaq, appears to be extremely unappealing to him. Personally I don't want to see more of these juggernaut 'Big Three', or 'Big Four' style teams, but at least their entertaining. This one would be incredibly fun to watch.

3. Howard to the Rockets: Probably the least likely outcome, but I believe this option makes the most sense for Orlando. The could get back three rookies - Jeremy Lamb, Royce White and Terrence Jones, - who have a great upside, plus a couple of future picks. This way, the Magic could rebuild around a young core and add more high potential guys over the next year or two, seeing as they are almost certain to be in the high lottery for a period. I believe this would be the best approach for the Magic to take so that they might build their franchise from the ground up, and give themselves a better chance of surrounding any future stars with a quality roster. From the Rockets point of view, they've made it pretty clear they'll give up anything to get a star big man to build around. The risk for Houston is that Dwight leaves next summer, but given the cap constraints of teams like the Nets, I'm not so sure that Dwight won't sign an extension wherever he ends up being traded. Houston is not an ideal situation though for Dwight. The Rockets roster is one in transition right now and Howard would arguably have only a slightly better supporting cast than in Orlando.