Olympic Basketball group stages draw to a close

The group stages of the men's basketball competition at these 2012 Olympic games have been completed, with eight teams now advancing to the medal rounds, while China, Great Britain, Tunisia and Nigeria go home. None of the major teams have been eliminated yet, but that's not to say that these group stages haven't thrown up their fair share of surprises. Let's look at each team one by one, and break down their performance so far, and their prospects of further progress in London.

Argentina

Argentina looked solid, if not particularly threatening while qualifying comfortably from the group stage. The Argentines are old heads at major international competitions such as this one, and they know how to pace themselves in the early rounds. That said, they'll need to reach a level of performance we haven't yet seen from them at these games if they're to overcome the challenge of South American rivals Brazil in tomorrow's quarter-final. The Argentinians have been superb offensively, as might have been expected with Ginobili and Scola leading the way. The NBA veterans are each averaging 20 ppg, and accounting for the bulk of the team's scoring, but most impressive has been the way in which they've created their scoring opportunities. They rank second in the tournament in assists to point ratio, which is testament both to their excellent ball movement and the quality play of new Knick's point guard, Pablo Prigioni.

Australia

From Day 1, the battle in group B seemed likely to boil down to achieving a top-three finish, and thus avoiding a likely quarter-final against the USA. It was Australia who drew the short straw. They just didn't have enough to stand out in the group round and looking back now, just getting this far and holding off a determined Team GB has been a solid achievement. Patty Mills, of course, has been the star of the show, and regardless of the result against USA, Mills buzzer-beating heroics against Russia will live long in Boomers fan's memories.

Australia's problem has been that they don't have anyone capable of stepping up and helping Mills out. If USA continue show the lack of focus they've sometimes exuded thus far, then the Aussie might run with them for a half, but ultimately, they've way to contain USA's multi-dimensional offensive, while the States will be more than capable of shutting Mills down should the game get close. The quarter-final exit will be surely be viewed with major disappointment by some down under, but realistically, it's probably been as much as they could hope for, especially without Andrew Bogut.

Brazil

Brazil have been the surprise package of this tournament, overcoming the favoured Spain, en route to second place in group B. The Brazilian's started off with two solid, if not outstanding wins over Australia and Great Britain, and despite losing by a single point against Russia, continued to build momentum. The culmination of this was an excellent win over Spain yesterday.

Brazil's success has come about through their ability to be versatile and play a team game. They've had different players step-up in each game and make the difference. Barbosa has been their main scorer thus fair, but he'still averaging less than 16 ppg, and they've relied on Tiago Splitter, Nene, and Marcelinho Huertas top step up at different times. Defensively, they've done a great job of bullying their opponents in the paint, and are far and away, the best overall defensive team in the tournament so far, allowing just 69.8 ppg. This has been largely due to stellar defence from Anderson Varejao, and the intimidating size of Splitter and Nene. On the offensive end, the have been scoring with efficiency, something which they'll need to continue, if they're to take further scalps at these games. Marcelinho Huertas has been revelation at the point, doing a great job of finding his team mates in scoring positions, to the tune of a tournament-leading 6.2 asssists per game.

Next up for Brazil, are old rivals Argentina, in what should prove to be a fascinating encounter. Argentina have dominated this match-up for the last decade and a half, and will be favourites once again, but I see Brazil putting it up to them, and I think the Samba boys will pull through. That said, if Brazil are to push on and really challenge for a medal at this games, they're going to need someone to step up and be that go to guy who'll score 20 or 25 points in a big game. I had thought before the tournament that Nene could fill this role, but thus far I've been frustrated by his passiveness. Instead, Brazil will likely rely on Barbosa or Huertas to make things happen on offensive, and against superior defences I think they'll struggle mightily. I still believe they'll have enough to see off an ageing Argentina, but, without a dominant takeover scorer, they'll likely fall short of a bronze medal.

China

For Chinese basketball, these Olympic games were not merely a disappointment, they were a total embarrassment. The Chinese team may not have been expected to medal, or even reach the knock-out stages, but no one really expected them to be this bad, and to play with so little fire or determination. When the going got tough, China rolled over. This was certainly epitomised in their final group match when they were convincingly beaten by a GB team missing Pops Mensah-Bonsu, and which sat Luol Deng for much of the game. There really were no positives for China to take home, and the performances paint a very bleak picture of the state of basketball in Asia.

In fact when you consider how much China, and - to a lesser extent - Tunisia struggled at these games, it becomes even harder to fathom why far superior teams like Greece, Italy and Serbia were not at these games. I understand that FIBA wanted an Asian representative and China were Asian champions, but the Greeks are fourth in the world rankings and would have been a legitimate medal threat. The argument against Tunisia goes likewise. Some may ask why I exclude Nigeria and Great Britain in this discussion, but I think there is strong evidence to suggest that both of those nations were worthy of their places at these games. Nigeria fought through a tough qualifying competition to get here, and Great Britain worked extremely hard to build a competitive team. If there continues to be an insistence that only twelve teams may participate at the Olympics, then FIBA needs to reorganise the qualification process to ensure that the best teams are the ones competing. Whether that means, no Asian/African teams or not. Personally, I would be in favour of merely expanding the format to include 16 or 20 teams.

France

France have done what was expected of them at these Games so far. The comprehensively beaten by Team USA in their opening game, but have bounced back well, with victory over Argentina a particular highlight. Next up, are silver medal favourites Spain, and it's an enormous challenge for Tony Parker and Co. France have had a two-pronged approach throughout these Games with Parker and Nicolas Batum to the fore-front. Nonetheless, the French have struggled to put points on the board at times and their strength, surprisingly, has been on the defensive end, where they're in the top-five in points allowed, steals, and blocks. 

In terms of further progress, France have been handed a difficult, if not impossible task. The key to the game will be Kevin Seraphin's ability to slow down Pau Gasol. Seraphin has been really impressive on the defensive end in this tournament, making good use of his size to block shots. Gasol though, looks rejuvenated, and has been dominant. He's currently the tournament's leading scoring at 20.6 ppg (tied with Australia's Patty Mills), and will be the main threat for Spain. If Gasol gets going, Spain will use him as a decoy to draw double-teams and create open looks for their perimeter shooters. France will need to nullify, or at least limit Gasol, if they're to have a realistic shot of winning this next game. It'll be close, but I think Spain's depth will be enough and the French will fall just short, by 4 or 5 points.

Great Britain

Great Britain may be among teams eliminated from the tournament at the group stages, but for the hosts things really went as well as they could realistically have hoped for. In the end, they were knocked-out with a 1-4 record, but when you consider how close some of the games were, it could easily have been 3-2. Their solitary win came in the final game against China, but the highlight of these games for Britain must surely be the magnificent performance they produced to bring Spain to the wire, before eventually falling short by a single point. Luol Deng was masterful that night, - as he was throughout the competition - leading his team in every major statistical category with 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. We knew this British team was going to lack the talent of their more illustrious opponents, but they made up the difference with hustle and determination. By the end of group play, they had three players in the top-ten rebounding list, - Pops Mensah-Bonsu (7.2 rpg), Luol Deng (6.6), and Joel Freeland (6.6) -  more than any other nation. In the end, this kind of titanic effort was not enough to make up for their shortcomings in other departments. The key for GB really, was that aside from Deng, Freeland and Mensah-Bonsu, they had no one with the talent to step up and compete consistently at such a high level. Nonetheless, this has been a great tournament for Great Britain, and hopefully British Basketball will invest in a programme to build towards qualification in 2016, as BBC's John Amaechi has suggested. Basketball on the international level needs more teams who can compete in these major competitions and be competitive, and there's no reason why GB can't be on a par with the Italys and Germanys of the basketball world.

Lithuania

Progress has been mixed so far at these games for Lithuania. They were very disappointing in the defeats to France and Argentina, but they ran Team USA close than anyone else, and will be relieved to have beaten Nigeria and Tunisia to progress without too much trouble. Just qualifying for the next stage is a minor success for the Lithuanians when you consider that they were beaten by that same Nigerian team just over a month ago in the qualifying tournament in Caracas. Next the meet Russia, in an eastern European quarter-final showdown, and it's a match-up the Lithuanians will be relish. Certainly Russia must go in as favourites, but the Baltic nation won't fear their larger neighbour. Linas Kleiza will have to step up again for Lithuania, as he did against USA, if they're to cause Russia trouble. The Lithuanians are heavily relient on Kleiza for scoring, but thus far, he's averaging a slightly disappointing 15.8 ppg. Lithuania would love to see him back at the level he played at in the 2010 World Championships when scored 19 ppg. Those extra few points could easily be the difference between playing for a medal, and going home early. The Lithuanians will focus on playing an inside-outside game with Kleiza and Valunciunas to try and stretch the Russian defense and free up space for their perimeter players. This is easier said that done though. Russia are currently one of the best, if not THE best defensive teams remaining. They have  allowed only 71.8 ppg so far (second), and they lead the competition in Blocks per game, at an impressive 6. This is a testament to Russia's interior defense, and their ability to close off the paint to opposing attackers. Lithuania will need their jump shots to be falling early, if they're to open up that Russian defense and get some better looks at the rim. All in all, my greatest worry for Lithuania, is that they're good in all facets of the game, but this current team, is great in none. They lack a true star to carry the burden in crunch time, and their defense isn't at an elite level. If the draw was more favourable I might give them some hope, but I believe this Russian team is set for a medal, and I think they'll dispatch Lithuania will relative ease.

Nigeria

For Nigeria, the greatest success of these games was qualifying in the first place. They're heroic performances against Greece and Lithuania in Caracas won't be forgotten easily. The tournament itself though, has been somewhat of an anti-climax for the Africans. The opened the competition with a solid win over Tunisia but things deteriorated from there and disappointing defeats to Argentina and Lithuania sandwiched an 83 point humiliation at hands of the United States. Nigeria regained some pride in the final game when they showed impressive resolve to hang with France for most of the game, but their legacy at this tournament will forever be associated with that USA game. I think the next challenge for Nigeria now, is to get this same squad to compete at the next AfroBasket. The Aminus, and Ike Diogu did not play in 2011, and so it would be interesting to see could this current model of Nigerian basketball, could win an African Championship. With that would come an automatic place at next FIBA World Championships.

Russia

Arguably the most impressive team outside of USA thus far, Russia have established themselves as strong medal contenders heading into the knockout rounds.They've earned their wins with tough interior defensive, leading the tournament in blocks per game, while holding opponents to a meagre 71.8 points per game. Offensively, Russia may not have the same free-flowing offense or scoring ability as teams like USA, Argentina and Spain, but they've gotten by with efficient offense, moving the ball well, and when all else fails, relying on Andrei Kirilenko to bail them out.

Kirilenko has been magnificent at these games. As well as providing his usual elite, perimeter defense, Kirilenko has shouldered much of the scoring load for the Russians thus far, averaging 18.2 ppg and reminded NBA fans of why he was once an All-Star. Watching Kirilenko, and his compatriot Alexey Schved, at these games, must have Minnesota Timberwolves fans wishing the season could start tomorrow. Schved has looked great for Russia during the Olympics, and his ability to run the pick and roll in particular, will excite 'Wolves fans. If the Russian continue to click and perform the way have been doing, I think they're sure to bag a medal. If the progress past Lithuania, they'll likely face Spain in the semi-final, a game which, I give them every chance of winning on current form.

Spain

Despite qualifying comfortably from Group B, Spain have been one of the more disappointing performers at these games so far. They suffered two defeats (to Russia, and Brazil) and only just avoided a giant-killing upset against a valiant GB. Nevertheless, Spain have the talent and experience to turn it around. Pau Gasol has looked rejuvenated offensively and he's thrived in playing a bigger role than the Lakers afford him. He'll be the key man that France, and later Russia/Lithuania will need to stop if they're to send Spain home early.

Spain's biggest problem seems to be the point guard position. Their merry-go-round rotation has really struggled, and they miss Ricky Rubio more than we could have expected. Juan Carlos Navarro has looked shockingly over hill at times, and both Sergio Rodriguez and two-guard Rudy Fernandez have struggled shooting the ball. Spain have also struggled to figure out how to maximise their talent up front. Serge Ibaka has been the odd-man out as Pau and Marc Gasol have garnered most of the minutes at the four and five positions. With Spain's hopes of seriously challenging for the gold medal, so dependent on their ability to overwhelm USA upfront, they need to find out how to play that trio together, and fast. Despite their solid all round play and experience at this level, there has been something unerring about Spain's performances at these games. I think they'll have enough to see off France, but beyond that they'll need to improve. USA, Brazil, Russia and Argentina all look more impressive to me thus far, but Spain certainly have the most room to grow. They'll most likely improve and medal, but it's by no means the certainty it seemed before this tournament began.

Tunisia

Tunisia's debut Olympic appearance won't live long in the memory. They crashed out as expected, without a win. That doesn't tell the whole story though. Tunisia grew in strength as the tournament went on and gave a brave account themselves considering how much of a talent disparity they faced. They certainly equitted themselves better than the Chinese. Mejri and Benrhomdane in particular made an impact. Tunisia's goal now  will be to develop further as a basketball nation. They should set a target to retain they're AfroBasket crown, and build from the bottom up so that in the near future they'll be better equipped to compete on the global stage.